WTO forecasts further weakening of global trade in first quarter of 2020

Trade will also be influenced by the impact of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of efforts to treat the disease.

According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer released this week World merchandise trade growth is likely to remain weak in early 2020.

WTO trade statistics show that the volume of world merchandise trade was down 0.2% in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the previous year. While the year-on-year final growth figures for the fourth quarter may pick up slightly, the latest barometer reading provides no indication of a sustained recovery. Indeed, year-on-year trade growth may fall again in the first quarter of 2020, though official statistics to confirm this will only become available in June.

The drop in the barometer since November has been driven by additional declines in indices for container shipping (94.8) and agricultural raw materials (90.9), as well as the plateauing of the automotive products index (100.0). Although indices for export orders (98.5), air freight (94.6) and electronic components (92.8) are all below baseline, they appear to have stabilized and would normally be expected to rise in the coming months.

However, every component of the Goods Trade Barometer will be influenced by the economic impact of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of efforts to treat and contain the disease.